HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 632 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012 VALID 00Z FRI FEB 24 2012 - 00Z FRI MAR 02 2012 THE SOLUTION SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT IS GOOD HOWEVER...WITH MOST MODELS AGREEING THAT FORMATION SHOULD OCCUR BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE FUTURE EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN HOWEVER...WITH THE 00-06Z GFS REPRESENTING THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...GENERALLY NEAR 35N/155W...THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF 25N/165W...AND THE 00Z ECMWF IN BETWEEN. GIVEN THE SPREAD AND RELATIVELY POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...FAVORS ENHANCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL OVER THE ISLANDS...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTIONS FAVOR LESS. OTHERWISE...THE PMSL FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER...GENERALLY SHOWING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. JAMES