HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 639 AM EST SAT MAR 03 2012 VALID 00Z SUN MAR 04 2012 - 00Z SUN MAR 11 2012 PACIFIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SETTLING DOWN SOMEWHAT TO BETTER AGREEMENT AS ALL AGREE ON A CUTOFF LOW FORMATION NORTH EAST OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP THIS NORTH OF 30N TRU MID WEEK AND THEN ITS PICKED UP AND EJECTED NEWD WITH THE NEXT NRN STREAM DIGGING TROF WED. ONLY CMC WHICH HAS A WEAKER DEPICTION LEAVES IT IN THE REGION AS A SERIOUS PLAYER THRU THE WEEK. CONSENSUS SOLUTION OF ALL MODELS HAS A VERY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WHICH WILL PROVIDE BRISK TRADES AND MDT/HVY TRADE SHOWERS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND FROM THE CUTOFF LOW WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL ALSO AID IN FOCUSSING SHOWERS WITH GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF ISLANDS. HEAVY RAINS MAY WELL IMPACT THE MAIN ISLAND REGION AS TRADES INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AND A LINGERING MORE E-W RESIDUAL FRONT THRU THE REGION FOCUSSES RAINFALL GIVING A CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. ROSENSTEIN