HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 730 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 VALID 00Z SAT MAR 17 2012 - 00Z SAT MAR 24 2012 THE PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL BEGIN WITH A STRONG 588-DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ADVANCING EAST OF THE STATE. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EDGE EASTWARD WITH THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY SPLITTING INTO TWO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN BATCH OF ENERGY WILL AMPLIFY AND SURGE EASTWARD WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS BEING CONFINED TO NORTH OF 30 DEGREES LATITUDE. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREE THAT THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE SHOULD BREAK OFF FROM THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WHILE STALLING AND OCCASIONALLY RETROGRADING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ALL THE WAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH WILL DOMINATE. BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CROSSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. RUBIN-OSTER á