HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 729 AM EDT TUE MAY 08 2012 VALID 00Z WED MAY 09 2012 - 00Z WED MAY 16 2012 AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY LINGERING JUST EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY GET PICKED UP BY AN UPPER TROF AMPLIFYING TO THE NORTH. ALL OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z UKMET AGREE THIS SHOULD USHER THE DISTURBANCE FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE TROF BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED EAST OF THE 140 DEGREE WEST LONGITUDE LINE. THE UKMET INDICATES THE SYSTEM WOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY EAST OF THE ISLANDS A BIT LONGER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE NEXT AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE REGION TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 06Z GFS-PARALLEL INDICATE ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE BY EARLY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TRADE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH WITH SUCH CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE USUAL WINDWARD SHOWERS WITH LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG THE FAVORED TOPOGRAPHY. BY THE WEEKEND...THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING WHILE TURNING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES INTENSIFYING NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE NORTHERN ISLANDS BY EARLY MONDAY BRINGING BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW TO THAT SECTION OF THE STATE. THE 00Z CMC CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 06Z GFS-PARALLEL PRESENT A MORE MIDDLE GROUND PORTRAYAL ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS MAUI BY 15/1200Z. THE LATTER WILL BE PREFERRED GIVEN THEIR FIT WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...SOME FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH A BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR FURTHER UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW NEARBY 28 N/153 W. RUBIN-OSTER