HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 803 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2012 VALID 00Z FRI AUG 03 2012 - 00Z FRI AUG 10 2012 THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK RELATIVELY DRY AND UNCHANGING THROUGH SEVEN DAYS. CONSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N/NE OF HAWAII WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS. PW VALUES WILL AVERAGE 1.25 INCHES OVER THE BIG ISLAND TO 1.50-1.75 INCHES NEAR KAUAI. THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CLOSE TO 35-40 DEG NORTH LATITUDE...WHICH OFFERS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SMALL VORTICITY CENTERS TO EXIST WITHIN AN AXIS CLOSE TO THE N/NW END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. DESPITE THIS...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ORGANIZED WEATHER...REMAINS RATHER SMALL. THE GFS IS ALONE IN ITS SYSTEMATICALLY INDUCING A DEEP LOW TO THE WEST OF KAUAI BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEVERAL RUNS HAVE DONE THIS...WITH VARYING RESULTING MOTION AS THE LOW MERGES WITH OTHER FEATURES WITHIN THE NARROW SHEAR AXIS. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO GROW IN A WARM CORE MANNER...TO THE SOUTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS...AND HAS LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF OR ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW IS STILL CONSIDERED A VERY LOW PROBABILITY...AND ITS EFFECTS WOULD MOST LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF KAUAI EVEN IF IT WERE TO FORM. BURKE