HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 756 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 VALID 00Z TUE SEP 25 2012 - 00Z TUE OCT 02 2012 HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII SHOULD FAVOR MODERATE ISLAND TRADES IN A PATTERN WITH LIMITED WINDWARD TERRAIN BASED SHOWERS INTO LATE WEEK. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IS SLATED THOUGH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM RESPONSE SHOULD ACT TO WEAKEN/VEER ISLAND TRADES THAT SHOULD LEAD TO DEEPER MOISTURE/SHOWER POTENTIAL BY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN TRANISION FAIRLY WELL...LENDING GOOD FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. OVERALL FAVOR A SOLUTION LEANING A BIT MORE ON THE AMPLIFIED SIDE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOLUTIONS OFFERED CONSIDERING THE AMPLITIDE OF UPSTREAM RIDGING COMMON TO GUIDANCE. AS SUCH BY THEN...PREFER A MIX OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES. SCHICHTEL