HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 728 AM EST THU NOV 08 2012 VALID 00Z FRI NOV 09 2012 - 00Z FRI NOV 16 2012 8/00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH LONGWAVE PATTERN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC AND H5 TROUGH INVOF 35N 150W-140W BETWEEN DAY 3-5. AT H7 AND BELOW...RIDGING HOLDING FIRM AND SOLUTIONS HOLDING TO FORM WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGH DAY 7. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THE H5 FLOW OVER THE PAST 7-10 DAYS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE...SO NO REASON TO DOUBT THE INDICATION OF A BROAD/BAGGY TROUGH ALONG 145W AND 15N-20N BY 12/00Z. THE 8/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON SUNDAY WITH THE DEPTH/LOCATION OF SOUTHERNMOST END OF THIS LONG WAVE DEVELOPMENT. UNLIKE THE 07/00Z PACKAGE...THE 8/00Z ECMWF/GFS OPERATIONALS LOWER H5 HEIGHTS AND ALLOW A WEAK WAVE TO PROSPER AND PROPAGATE WESTWARD TO THE ISLANDS IN THE H5-H7 LAYER. GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL HINTED AT SOME SORT OF 'RAIN-BEARING' WAVE AS THE TRADES FRESHEN BY 5-10 KTS NEXT WEEK. AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...WOULD RECOMMEND A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND ANTICIPATE SOME SUBTLE CHANGE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE. 8/00Z ECMWF/GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH 7/00Z OPERATIONALS WITH LATITUDE OF POSSIBLE WAVE DEVELOPMENT. PERHAPS A BIT A OPTIMISTIC FOR SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE 'PRECIPITATION' ACROSS HAWAI'I...BUT WORTH NOTING...AS DRY AS IT HAS BEEN ISLAND WIDE. LIKEWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER LONGWAVE CURRENTLY INVOF 175E TO MIGRATE TO A SIMILAR LONGITUDE (IE 140W-150W) IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BY 15/00Z AS THE ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE A RATHER RELIABLE INDICATOR OF THE FLOW. VOJTESAK