HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 719 AM EST TUE NOV 20 2012 VALID 00Z WED NOV 21 2012 - 00Z WED NOV 28 2012 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DIFFER WITH SMALLER SCALE SPECIFICS AND RUN TO RUN VARIANCE IS MORE THAN DESIRED...SO THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY...BUT STILL SEEM TO POINT TO A WETTER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL PATTERN FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. IMPULSES FEED TOWARD THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD INTO MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPMENTS NORTHWEST AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROFFING NEAR THE STATE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LEAD INFLUX OF DEEPER MOISTURE AS DISRUPTED TRADES VEER. IN THIS PATTERN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD WITH A THREAT OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE HOLIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN ISLANDS CLOSER TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL PREFER A SOLUTION BLENDING THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHOSE COMBINATION ACTS TO SMOOTH SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM/INTERACTION DIFFERENCES WHILE OFFERING SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN ALL GUIDANCE CONCENSUS FLOW AMPLITUDE. SCHICHTEL