HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 729 AM EST MON DEC 10 2012 VALID 00Z TUE DEC 11 2012 - 00Z TUE DEC 18 2012 THE NEXT WEEK CAN BE SIMPLIFIED AS A PERIOD OF TRADE WINDS STRENGTHENING TO MODERATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND PERSISTING...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO MID LEVEL LIFT/REDUCTION OF STATIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH DIPPING BENEATH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS FEATURE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE WESTERLIES...BUT THIS APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST FOR HAWAII...AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DO A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE 06Z GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED TROUGH...IN PINCHING OFF A WEAK AND BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER THE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ONLY A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MORE FLAT LOOK OF THE TROUGH IN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE MORE SUPPORT. USING TELECONNECTIONS THIS PERIOD IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT OWING TO THE LACK OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ANOMALIES...BUT TELECONNECTIONS BASED ON A MEDIUM WAVELENGTH RIDGE OVER GREENLAND DO SUPPORT A LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF AND GEFS MEANS AT DAYS 6/7. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF AT 00Z FITS THESE IDEAS A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS. BURKE