HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 631 AM EST WED JAN 02 2013 VALID 00Z THU JAN 03 2013 - 00Z THU JAN 10 2013 THE POLAR FRONT THAT SETTLED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN LAST EVENING WILL DO SO AT LEAST ONCE MORE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, SOMETIME EARLY FRIDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE LONGWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BASIN WILL LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE, KEEPING HAWAII IN THE TRADES. THE FRIDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE, WITH EVEN OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS DISCOURAGED. EVEN WHEN THE POLAR JET RECEDES NEXT WEEK, THE MOISTURE ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD STAY BELOW 15N. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA, SO USED IT AS A YARDSTICK BY WHICH TO MEASURE SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT DEVIATE FROM THE EXPECTED THEME. CISCO