HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 716 AM EST SAT JAN 05 2013 VALID 00Z SUN JAN 06 2013 - 00Z SUN JAN 13 2013 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 38N/140W BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS POSITIVE ANOMALY AT 500MB AND AT THE SFC IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE +2 TO +2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION RANGE WITH A CENTRAL MSLP OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ABOVE 1040MB. IN THE INTERIM... BRISK TRADES WILL AVERAGE EASTERLY THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A MID-LEVEL AND SFC DISTURBANCE FROM THE SE APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND. THE WETTER ECMWF REMAINS ON THE SW SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLES SPREAD WHILE THE DRIER GFS REMAINS TO THE NE... SO A COMPROMISE MAY AGAIN BE A BEST APPROACH. TRADE SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF ESPECIALLY THE SE ISLANDS BUT COULD SPILL OVER WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES. FRACASSO