HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 724 AM EST MON MAR 04 2013 VALID 00Z TUE MAR 05 2013 - 00Z TUE MAR 12 2013 4/00 MODEL PACKAGES WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SOLID AGREEMENT FROM THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS-GEFS FOR LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY ON/AFTER 8/00Z IN ADVANCE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH HEIGHTS FALLS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 8/18Z. THE ECMWF/GEFS MEANS ARE THE TWO SOLUTIONS THAT PINCH OFF A CLOSED H5 LOW ALONG 40N 155W ON/AROUND 10/12Z AND IN RESPONSE...ALLOW A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL ALONG/AHEAD OF A DISCERNIBLE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND. THE SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE FLOW SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH-NEEDED ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION FOR THE ISLANDS NEXT WEEKEND. BEYOND DAY 6/7...THE 4/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF MAINTAIN A STATIONARY CUTOFF H5 SOLUTION IN THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC INVOF 38.5N 154.5W. ALTHOUGH THE LAT/LONG FORECASTS ARE SELDOM PERFECT PROGS...THESE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND THE FUTURE TRENDS HAVE SOME MERIT GIVEN THE PROJECTED ESTABLISHMENT OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN (DOWNSTREAM SOLUTION) OVER THE MAINLAND AND ALASKA PANHANDLE. VOJTESAK