HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 818 AM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013 VALID 00Z SUN MAR 17 2013 - 00Z SUN MAR 24 2013 THE LOW SFC/ALOFT INITIALLY TO THE N OF THE STATE WILL BE LIFTING GRADUALLY NEWD FROM SAT ONWARD. HOWEVER THE TRAILING SFC FRONT JUST E OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL HAVE LITTLE INCENTIVE TO MOVE UNTIL THE AXIS OF TRAILING SHRTWV ENERGY PASSES TO THE E OF THE STATE BY TUE. ESPECIALLY OVER/NEAR THE BIG ISLAND... WHERE THE BEST DEEP MSTR IS FCST... POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED RNFL SUN-MON DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE SFC FRONT AND PERSISTENT MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. MEANWHILE A SHRTWV EMERGING OVER THE WRN PACIFIC WILL DEVELOP A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALOFT WELL NW OF THE ISLANDS... SUPPORTING THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SFC FRONT BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ENCOURAGE A NWD RETURN OF MSTR ACROSS THE STATE IN THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST AXIS OF MSTR TRANSITIONING MORE TOWARD THE NWRN ISLANDS. COMPARING THE FULL ARRAY OF GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THE 00Z GFS/CMC MAY BECOME A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH THE SEWD EXTENT OF THE OVERALL TROUGH ALOFT BY FRI AND THE 06Z GFS BY SAT... SO THOSE SOLNS COULD BE A TAD FAST WITH THE ASSOC SFC FRONT. ON THE OTHER HAND THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE SWRN SIDE OF THE SPREAD WITH ITS SYSTEM FROM THU ONWARD. THIS LEAVES A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER EWD 00Z GEFS MEAN AS THE BEST OPTION FOR THE FCST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. RAUSCH