HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 747 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013 VALID 00Z THU MAY 16 2013 - 00Z THU MAY 23 2013 THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL REASONABLY AGREE IN SHOWING MODERATE TO LOCALLY BRISK TRADE PATTERN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SHORT TERM SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED OVER FAVORED TERRAIN WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING AND LIFT UNDER PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS/LOW...AND THIS SEEMS WELL DEPICTED BY LATEST WATER VAPOR AND BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS. GUIDANCE OFFERS SLIGHTLY LESS FORECAST SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE DIGGING EXTENT OF ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NW OVER THE WEEKEND THAT WOULD EFFECT TRADES WHILE BRINGING A RAINFALL FOCUSING FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE STATE. RECENT PATTERN HISTORY AND THE COMMON GUIDANCE BUILDING OF AN AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LENDS PREFERENCE TO EMPHASIZE AN UPPER LOW POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SUN-WED THAT SEEMS DECENTLY SUPPORTED BY A CLUSTER OF GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF. GUIDANCE OVERALL SEEMS UNDERDONE WITH LOCAL POOLED MOISTURE/RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THIS DEVELOPING/LINGERING WET PATTERN NEXT WEEK. SCHICHTEL