HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 834 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013 VALID 00Z SUN JUN 16 2013 - 00Z SUN JUN 23 2013 ...OVERVIEW... A GRADUAL TRANSITION FOR HAWAI'I WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING. FROM MODERATE/BRISK TRADES AND STRONG RIDGING (TIL DAY 5) TO A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WEAK TROUGH ALONG 160W BY DAY 7. THE 15/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 4 (WED) ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...THEN THE STRUGGLES OF THE 15/00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN RUNS AND THEIR MEANS CONTINUE WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH ANCHORED OVER ALASKA. THE CONSEQUENCES DEVELOPING OVER THE ALEUTIANS (UNDERNEATH AND UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGE FROM THE WEST) ARE TO TRANSITION TO A FAST-ZONAL FLOW AT MID LATITUDES AFTER DAY 5. THE TRANSITION TO A FAST-ZONAL FLOW REGIME IS NOT A PERFECT PROG...AND THE 15/00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE RIDDLED WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY AND FLIP-FLOP TYPE PHASING ISSUES WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES STREAKING THROUGH THE 'MEAN' ZONAL FLOW AND THEIR INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. ...MODEL PREFERENCES... A BLEND OF THE 14/12Z EC ENSEMBLE MEANS AND 15/00Z NAEFS MEANS APPEARS IN ORDER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. BEST TO TRANSITION THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD IN THIS DIRECTION. ANTICIPATE...MODERATE TO BRISK TRADES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS UNTIL MONDAY. NEXT WEEK...A MORE VARIABLE INTENSITY IS SETTING UP WITH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEING THE TRANSITION DAYS (MOST UNCERTAIN PERIOD FOR TIMING THE DECREASE IN TRADEWIND INTENSITIES). CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND REGARDING THE TRADEWIND DISRUPTION. VOJTESAK