HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 705 AM EDT WED OCT 09 2013 VALID 00Z THU OCT 10 2013 - 00Z THU OCT 17 2013 THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO LOOK NOISY WITH SHORTWAVES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LOTS OF SHORTWAVES MEAN LOTS OF SOLUTION SPREAD, AND INDEED, WITH ANY GIVEN DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN, BLOCKY EDDIES CAN WIND UP SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES APART BETWEEN 30N AND 50N. WITH ITS ROBUST SET OF SOME 50 MEMBERS, THE EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS PROVEN ITS WORTH AT THE MEDIUM RANGE BOTH WITH RESPECT TO SKILL AND STABILITY, AFFORDING A YARDSTICK OF SORTS FOR SORTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES. WITH REGARD TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, THE MESSY, ENERGETIC, MID-LEVEL WHIRLS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z/09 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TO THE NORTH OF HAWAI'I BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ARE APPARENTLY A SUFFICIENT ENOUGH LONGSHOT TO NOT BE REFLECTED IN THE ATTENDANT ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM THAT MODELING CENTER (THE ECENS MEAN, IN FACT, SHOWS A RIDGE AT 700MB ACROSS THE SAME AREA). THIS STATE OF AFFAIRS ARGUES FOR A LESS PERTURBED STRETCH OF WESTERLIES--BOTH PHYSICALLY AND TEMPORALLY--ON TAP FOR THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK. THE MOST UNSETTLED TIME SHOULD BE AT THE SHORT RANGE--THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY--AS A DISORGANIZED UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS THE STATE FROM EAST TO WEST. NEITHER THE FORCING NOR MOISTURE ATTENDANT TO THE DISTURBANCE APPEAR OF SIGNIFICANT MAGNITUDE TO WRING OUT PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS SHOWERS, BUT THE CHARACTER OF THE WEATHER WILL AT LEAST BE SUB-FAIR UNTIL THE WEEKEND. CISCO