HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 730 AM EST THU NOV 07 2013 VALID 00Z FRI NOV 08 2013 - 00Z FRI NOV 15 2013 THE LARGE-SCALE MODEL DEPICTIONS ACROSS THE PACIFIC SHOW RELATIVELY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY EXCEPT WITH SLIGHTLY LESS DISPERSION. THE PREDOMINANT THEME REMAINS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND...WITH A CLOSED LOW PRESENTLY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE DECAYING. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN USUAL UNTIL THE CLOSED LOW COMPLETELY PASSES AND THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS...FOLLOWING BY A SURGE IN THE TRADES FOR AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SHOW GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BLOCK GENERALLY REMAINING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS FURTHEST FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A CLOSED LOW BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE BENEATH THE UPPER HIGH AND THEREFORE IS CONSIDERED LESS LIKELY...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF INCLUDING MANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINTAIN ANOTHER POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE CANADIAN SOLUTION BUT STILL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BLOCK CREATES ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. JAMES