HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 721 AM EST THU NOV 21 2013 VALID 00Z FRI NOV 22 2013 - 00Z FRI NOV 29 2013 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE ALONG WITH GUIDANCE THAT MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR SHOWS AMPLE CONVECTION NOW FIRING OFF THE WRN ISLANDS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION MIGRATING FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH HEAVIEST THREAT TODAY OVER THE WRN TO CENTRAL ISLANDS. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL EASE IN TRADES IN A PATTERN WITH LIMITED WINDWARD TERRAIN SHOWERS. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED AND TRADE DISRUPTING FRONTAL APPROACH TOWARD THE STATE FROM THE NW IN ABOUT A WEEK IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION. SCHICHTEL