HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 720 AM EST MON DEC 02 2013 VALID 00Z TUE DEC 03 2013 - 00Z TUE DEC 10 2013 UPPER TROUGHING IN THE NEAR TERM TO THE NW OF HAWAII WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY/MONDAY ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE ITS PLACE TUE-WED. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND... THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ALL MAINTAIN A WEAKNESS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING HEIGHTS IN ADVANCE OF TROUGHING TO THE NORTH... WITH MOSTLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT... WHICH IS FORECAST TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN ISLANDS IN ITS TAIL END PER THE GFS/ECMWF. THE STRONG RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO ALASKA IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK AND THE ENSEMBLES SHOW MORE TROUGHING NEAR 35N/170W BUT THE GFS/GEFS MEMBERS WERE MUCH DEEPER/FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF/EC MEMBERS... BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD. GIVEN THE PATTERN BREAKDOWN EXPECTED... WHICH MODELS TYPICALLY HANDLE POORLY... WOULD RELY ON AN ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT FOR SUN-MON/D6-7. FRACASSO