HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 714 AM EST WED DEC 04 2013 VALID 00Z THU DEC 05 2013 - 00Z THU DEC 12 2013 TYPICAL PATTERN EXPECTED OVER HAWAII THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE TAIL END OF A FRONT SKIRTS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEXT WEEK... THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE TOWARD/INTO AT LEAST THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT IN BETWEEN RIDGING. ECMWF/EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWED THIS WETTER SCENARIO FOR SEVERAL CYCLES AND IT APPEARS THE GFS/GEFS ARE JUST NOW CATCHING UP. PREFER TO RELY ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF CLUSTER AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLES SHOW ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF PRECIP OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE BIG ISLAND SAT-WED BUT THIS DROPS OFF MARKEDLY TOWARD THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. FRACASSO