HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 724 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2013 VALID 00Z SUN DEC 29 2013 - 00Z SUN JAN 05 2014 WEEKEND SYSTEM PASSAGE CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE IS SUPPORTING SOME ASSOCIATED TRAILING FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND SMALL CRAFT/HIGH SURF ADVISORIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. TRADES SHOULD LINGER OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL ISLANDS...BUT SHORT TERM RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEEMS HIGHER MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SRN ISLANDS IN DEEPER LIFT/POOLED MOISURE AS PER LATEST BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS AND RADAR. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH SPECIFICS...BUT ALL INDICATE THAT ENERGY SPLITTING SEWD FROM OVERTOP AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WNW OF THE STATE WILL REINFORCE A DOWNSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ACT TO WEAKEN ISLAND TRADES AND USHER IN A PERIOD OF MORE LIMITED MOISTURE AND RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH NEXT MIDWEEK. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ENERGIES APPROACHING FROM THE NW MAY THEN CARVE OUT A LATE WEEK CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO THE NNW OF THE STATE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD FORCE ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SETUP LEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL...DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS VARIED BY NATURE MORE FROM RUN TO RUN COMPARED TO A MORE COMPOSITE AND FAVORED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION APPROACH FOR THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE REASONABLY COMPATABLE AND OFFER GOOD SUPPORT FOR THIS AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO. SCHICHTEL