HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 729 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013 VALID 00Z MON DEC 30 2013 - 00Z MON JAN 06 2014 POTENT SYSTEM PASSAGE NOW NNE OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME ASSOCIATED TRAILING FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND HIGH SURF WARNINGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. POST-FRONTAL TRADES WILL LINGER TODAY AND SHORT TERM RAINFALL POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SRN ISLANDS IN DEEPER LIFT/POOLED MOISURE AS PER LATEST BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS AND RADAR. GUIDANCE REASONABLY AGREES THAT THE SEWD SPLIT OF ENERGY FROM OVERTOP AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WNW OF THE STATE WILL REINFORCE A DOWNSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ADDITIONAL TROUGH ENERGIES SPLIT NEWD. ISLAND TRADES WEAKEN AND USHER IN A PERIOD OF MORE LIMITED MOISTURE AND RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ENERGIES APPROACHING FROM THE NW MAY THEN CARVE OUT A LATE WEEK CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO THE NNW OF THE STATE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD FORCE A WELL ORGANIZED FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SETUP OVER THE STATE INTO FRI WITH MOISTENING/VEERING WINDFLOW IN ADVANCE THEN LEADING TO A SLOW AND WET FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE STATE NEXT WEEKEND AS SUPPORT ALOFT PROGRESSES. OVERALL...THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEM MORE REASONABLY COMPATABLE AND OFFER GOOD SUPPORT FOR THIS AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO...SO PREFER A COMPOSITE SOLUTION TO BLEND OUT LINGERING BUT IMPORTANT SMALLER SCALE UNCERTAINTIES. SCHICHTEL