HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 727 AM EST THU JAN 09 2014 VALID 00Z FRI JAN 10 2014 - 00Z FRI JAN 17 2014 THE 9/00Z ECMWF-GFS AND 9/06Z GFS PACKAGES WERE CONSISTENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION THROUGH THE HEART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS WESTWARD MOTION CEASES IN ABOUT 24-30 HOURS. THE CHANGE IN MOTION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO A SURFACE FRONT WITH SUBTLE JET SUPPORT...APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE DETERMINISTIC 9/00Z-9/06Z GFS AND 9/00Z ECMWF ALL SUPPORT THE SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THIS SURFACE FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY (DAY 2-4). THESE SOLUTIONS CLUSTER WELL WITHIN THEIR CORRESPONDING MEAN SOLUTIONS AND PROVIDE A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE LEVEL WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH DAY 5. THESE SOLUTIONS EXPECT SOME MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION AND LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TRACKING THROUGH THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN THIS COMING WEEKEND. AFTER DAY 5...RECOMMEND BLENDING THE 9/06Z GEFS-9/00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...TO GIVE A GENERALLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE FLOW ALOFT...WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DECENT HEIGHT RISES BUILDING INTO HAWAI'I FROM THE WEST. VOJTESAK