HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 722 AM EST WED JAN 15 2014 VALID 00Z THU JAN 16 2014 - 00Z THU JAN 23 2014 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AGAIN SHOWS A WELL ESTABLISHED WRN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AN ENERGETIC STORM TRACK REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES OVERTOP THIS RIDGE AND TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM ERN ASIA TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. WHILE THE BULK OF ENERGY THEN LIFTS NEWD TOWARD ALASKA IN THE FACE OF AN AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...THE AFOREMENTIONED AND EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPREAD TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY TO SPLIT ESEWD FOCUSING CLOSER TO/JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS PERIODICALLY OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN ALLOWS A SERIES OF ASSOCIATED FRONTS/PCPN TO REACH THE STATE AND MEANWHILE ACT TO KEEP BELOW NORMAL ISLAND TRADE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COMPOSITE OF THE LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS OVERALL PATTERN THAT INCLUDES A SERIES OF PASSING SYSTEMS AND TRAILING FRONTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SUN/MON...AND PERHAPS AGAIN AROUND NEXT MIDWEEK WITH MORE GUSTO AS THE OVERALL FLOW AMPLIFIES. THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY AS THE COMPOSITE MITIGATES SOME SYSTEM INTENSITY DIFFERENCES MORE EVIDENT BY DAYS 5-7. SCHICHTEL