HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 720 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2014 VALID 00Z SAT JAN 18 2014 - 00Z SAT JAN 25 2014 MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DISPLAYS GOOD CONTINUITY FOR THE FCST OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WILL BRING A SERIES OF FRONTS AND TRAILING SFC HIGHS THAT WILL RESULT IN UNUSUALLY VARIABLE WINDS ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS. A WEAK FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE ISLANDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. THE NEXT FRONT IN THE SERIES SHOULD REACH THE ISLANDS AROUND SUN AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY LGT PCPN. THE FCST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A MUCH STRONGER FRONT TO CROSS THE ISLANDS AROUND WED... ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF RNFL. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE 00Z/06Z GFS. PRIMARY DIFFS ALOFT INVOLVE THE 00Z ECMWF BEGINNING TO OUTPACE CONSENSUS A BIT ONCE THE SUPPORTING SHRTWV PASSES TO THE NE OF THE REGION... AND THE 00Z UKMET BECOMING SLOW/AMPLIFIED. BASED ON REMAINING CONSENSUS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN LATEST GFS RUNS AND THE ECMWF MEAN. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE AIR SHOULD BE QUITE DRY WITH FCST PWATS REACHING AS LOW AS OR EVEN LOWER THEN 0.75 INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD THE 00Z ECMWF HAS LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER SOLNS FOR ANOTHER FRONT THAT REACHES AS FAR S AS 25-26N LATITUDE. RAUSCH