HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 722 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 VALID 00Z THU JAN 30 2014 - 00Z THU FEB 06 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS AND LATEST MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS REASONABLY AGREE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW NEAR THE STATE WILL BE SLOWLY KICKED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SLOWLY LOSE INFLUENCE. IN THE SHORT TERM THOUGH EXPECT SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY OVER THE SRN/ERN ISLANDS INCLUDING SOME HIGH ELEVATION WINTER WEATHER OVER THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A WINTER STORM AND LOWER LEVEL FLASH FLOODING WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF NEW CLOSED SYSTEM AMPLIFICATION TO THE NW OF THE ISLANDS THU/FRI THAT GRADUALLLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WEEKEND TRACK SHOULD ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING FRONT AND INCREASED SHOWERS WORK INTO THE ISLANDS WHILE PULLING BACK MOISTURE. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN SUPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO TUE/WED WHEN CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NW OF THE STATE ALLOWS AN ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FOCUSING FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK AGAIN INTO THE ISLANDS. SCHICHTEL