HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 727 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014 VALID 00Z MON FEB 17 2014 - 00Z MON FEB 24 2014 HAWAI'I WEATHER WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY A CUTOFF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ITS EMERGING 'COLD FRONT' AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAY 2 AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES GLIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE WELL-DEFINED COMMA-HEAD CLOUD SHIELD. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DOES GRADUALLY MIGRATE THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY (DYING COLD FRONT) LEFT BEHIND--BY THE DEPARTING CYCLONE-- WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEASTWARD--AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE NORTH PACIFIC SHORTWAVE STREAKING THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS BY DAY 4. A HEAVILY-WEIGHTED 16/00Z ECENS/GEFS MEAN IS RECOMMENDED...AND FOR ADDED DETAIL...THE DETERMINISTIC 16/00Z-16/06Z GFS & 16/00Z ECMWF WILL A PROVIDE A REASONABLE QPF DISTRIBUTION THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A SIDE NOTE...THE GFS/GEFS SOLUTION DOES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE FLOW THROUGH DAY 7 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PACIFIC. AND IN TURN...IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE 'COLD FRONT' THAN THE ECMWF/ECENS MEAN SOLUTION. THIS IS VERY MUCH A POSSIBILITY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE EASTWARD SPREAD OF MUCH-NEEDED SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE STATE BY MID-WEEK. WHAT TREND HAS EMERGED FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OVER THE PACIFIC DURING THE PAST 2-3 DAYS...IS THE APPEARANCE OF A FAST-MOVING AND PROGRESSIVE 'NEGATIVE-TILT' TROUGH CONFIGURATION ALOFT IN THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC AND ALONG THE MAINLAND'S WEST COAST. THIS DOES HAVE MORE OF A MARCH-APRIL LOOK AND AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. VOJTESAK