HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 749 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014 VALID 00Z FRI MAR 21 2014 - 00Z FRI MAR 28 2014 GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN LOCK-STEP FASHION WITH MIGRATORY FEATURES IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...AND WITH A WEAKENING/DEPARTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATING EAST OF 150W LONGITUDE IN UNISON WITH A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH AXIS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC DAY 4 (MONDAY). THE TWO ENSEMBLE PACKAGES BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND DAY 5...WITH THE OUTCOME OF THE WAVE AMPLITUDE AND FREQUENCY IN THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE GEFS IS TRENDING TO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN IN THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC (WEST OF THE DATELINE)...AND THE ECENS...A FLATTER...LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC BY DAY 8 (28/12Z). THE 20/00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS RUNS WERE IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5. THIS ALLOWS A DECAYING LOW-TO MID-LEVEL FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONAL TRADES. AS A WHOLE...A BLEND OF THE 20/00Z GEFS/ECENS WITH ASPECTS OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SHOULD YIELD DECENT RESULTS THROUGH DAY 7. USING THE DETERMINISTIC 20/00Z GFS BEYOND DAY 5 YIELDS A MUCH FASTER WAVE PROGRESSION ALONG THE MAINLAND'S WEST COAST AND A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER/NORTH OF THE ISLANDS VS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF. VOJTESAK