Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2014

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 14 2014 - 00Z Mon Jul 21 2014

During the first couple days of the period guidance agrees fairly
well in principle for the passing band of enhanced moisture
associated with the remnants of Fausto.  This moisture will
increase potential for some locally heavy rainfall, though ECMWF
runs continue to anticipate higher PW values than GFS runs and
thus greater potential for heavy rainfall.  The 00Z ECMWF is on
the higher end of the full spread of 00Z GEFS/ECMWF ensemble
members so at least a compromise for the PW forecast appears
reasonable.

Once the best deep moisture departs after Tue an eastern Pacific
deep layer ridge will slowly retrograde to north of the islands
along 40N latitude by next weekend, bringing moderate trades and
mostly light windward showers.  A weakness aloft passing over the
islands as well as some persistence of deep moisture near the Big
Island could encourage modest enhancement of activity at times.

Guidance is indicating potential for another surge of enhanced
moisture from the east/southeast around the end of the period next
Sun.  Trends from the 00Z to 06Z GFS and 12Z/12 to 00Z/13 ECMWF
are both slower, while 00Z GEFS/ECMWF ensemble members depict a
notable increase in spread for PW values around this time.

Rausch