Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 815 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014 Valid 00Z Thu Jul 31 2014 - 00Z Thu Aug 07 2014 The 30/00Z ECENS and GEFS means maintained decent continuity and continue to carry a slow northeastward migration of a closed h5-to-sfc low through the central gulf of Alaska into day 6. Beyond day 6, the ECENS is a slightly more progressive and deeper solution at 500 millibars. Their 30/00Z deterministic runs begin to diverge as early as day 4 (4/00Z) with respect to depth and geographical positioning of a secondary wave developing along the base of the upper-level trough between 140W-145W. But for the most part, the differences are inconsequential for Hawai'i sensible weather forecasts. In the Subtropics, the GEFS/ECENS means and their deterministic runs do not waver much with the surface ridge strength and central pressure location invof 35N 140W through day 6. Likewise, they agree on an active period in the tropical east Pacific between 10N-15N latitude with additional tropical disturbances progged to develop invof 15N 125W and to follow a track that is a tad north and west of the remnant 'Genevieve' track. Blending the GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs with their means would provide generic track guidance for active systems emerging within the ITCZ. In particular---a disturbance invof 18N 147W @ 7/00Z---the end of day 7 would be a 'straight-up' 50/50 blend of both 30/00Z GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs. Please monitor information from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center concerning tropical weather developments. Vojtesak