Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 822 AM EDT Tue Aug 05 2014 Valid 00Z Wed Aug 06 2014 - 00Z Wed Aug 13 2014 ...Iselle and Julio forecast to track over/near Hawaii... A rare double hit for Hawaii by two tropical systems remains in the forecast. The NHC will be passing the forecast responsibilities for Iselle, the lead system, to the CPHC today/Tuesday. Iselle is forecast to track over the Big Island late Thursday and slide just south of the rest of the island chain on Friday. The 00Z GFS/ECMWF forecast PW values to rise to between 2.25-2.50 inches at Hilo, just above the 99th percentile and near monthly record high values, which is slightly above the ensemble consensus. Several inches of rainfall is expected, with higher amounts favored over northeastern portions of the Big Island. Tropical storm Julio, currently near 125W, is forecast to become a hurricane and is forecast to follow a very similar track to Iselle through late Saturday. Thereafter, the trend seems to favor a northward jog, perhaps even north of the islands whereas yesterday the middle of the consensus took the system over the Big Island. Please consult the NHC for the latest information. In addition, the WPC hemispheric surface maps will reflect the coordinated WPC/NHC day 6-7 position of Julio (issued by 19Z). On a larger scale, the ensembles diverge quite drastically over the northern and northeastern Pacific by next week, which may influence where Julio will ultimately track. All ensembles do indicate a weakness in the height field around 160W on Sunday, but the ECMWF ensembles become stronger with the ridging to the NW of the state near 35N/165W while the GEFS members focus the ridging to the NE of Hawaii. Fracasso