Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 AM EDT Thu Aug 07 2014

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 08 2014 - 00Z Fri Aug 15 2014

...'Iselle' and 'Julio' bearing down on Hawai'i...

Active weather scenario setting up for the Islands and the 7/00Z
deterministic GFS-ECMWF storm track guidance for 'Iselle'
generally fits the most recent guidance provided by CPHC. As noted
in the CPHC discussions, intensity remains an issue as the system
interacts with Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea. Of the 7/00Z deterministic
runs, the GFS is the weaker of the 2 solutions.     

The long-track history of 'Iselle' has few comparisons. 'Kanoa' in
1957 offers the closest track history, though it weakened not long
after reaching the Big Island. 'Iselle' is not forecast to weaken,
and should be considered a very dangerous storm.

In the wake of 'Iselle', a second system--'Julio' will track very
near the Big Island this weekend. The 7/00Z deterministic GFS is
on the southern envelope of the NHC guidance with the ECMWF very
similar to the NHC track.

Both models and their ensembles indicate a return to more normal
conditions on Wednesday (13/12Z and beyond).

Please refer to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) and
the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the latest information
concerning these tropical cyclones.

Vojtesak