Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2014

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 11 2014 - 00Z Mon Aug 18 2014


10/00Z ECENS/GEFS and their deterministic runs follow current CPHC
forecasts for the low-level circulation associated with 'Julio' to
13/12Z.

Deterministic guidance continues to waffle on solutions for
tropical and subtropical energy exchanges between mid-latitude
Pacific longwave trough centered ~ along 155W longitude
currently--then with medium range period troughing between
155W-160W longitude after day 5. 'Genevieve' and 'Julio' present
short-term challenges in the Subtropics---their moisture transport
into the mid-latitude westerlies present forecast challenges
downstream along the west coast of North America.

10/00Z deterministic mass field forecasts suggest strongly-sheared
environment along 30N latitude will partially 'lop off' mid-level
moisture from the aforementioned tropical systems during the next
24-36 hours. After that time frame, very little agreement with
secondary shearing of what remains of the low-level circulations.
Recommend a 10/00Z GEFS/ECENS mean blend after day 2--as both
means do a good job of depicting the synoptic-scale flow across
the entire Pacific and mitigate the occasional bursts of tropical
moisture working across the Pacific from west to east.

Please refer to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for
the latest information, discussions and updates concerning 'Julio'.

Vojtesak