Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2014

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 18 2014 - 00Z Mon Aug 25 2014

Trades should average in the moderate range through the period as
the islands remain within the gradient between high pressure over
the eastern Pacific and lowest pressures over the tropics.  Expect
windward focused showers to vary in intensity depending on
available moisture and features aloft.  During Mon-Wed
precipitable water values will likely be near or slightly below
normal but a weakness aloft may encourage a modest increase in
activity.  Then in varying ways GFS/ECMWF runs are indicating that
around Thu an area of enhanced moisture associated with disturbed
weather near 140W may brush the Big Island.  The core of highest
moisture will most likely be deflected a bit to the south by
ridging aloft to the north/northeast of the region.  Rainfall
should trend a little lighter again by Fri-Sun as the relative
maximum in deep moisture moves away, but spread and variability in
guidance suggest the forecast for precipitable water values has
low predictability at that time.

Rausch