Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 806 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014 Valid 00Z Fri Sep 19 2014 - 00Z Fri Sep 26 2014 Models and ensembles offer a seemingly reasonable and similar overall flow pattern forecast for much of the coming week. Latest water vapor imagery still shows a nearly stationary upper trough/low centered over the western islands in a pattern with light trades underneath modest high pressure to the north of the state. The high quickly weakens as a front settles north of the state in response to amplified mid-upper level trough passage across the northeast Pacific. This disrupts trades and allows formation of a pattern with sea/land breeze showers into early next week. Meahwhile, a tropical disturbance now well southeast of the Big Island is slated to pass to the south of the islands over the next few days that could temporarily act to increase winds a bit and allow some associated moisture to skirt the southern islands by late this weekend. Light trades may return by next Tue-Thu leading into a return of limited windward shower based pattern. Schichtel