Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2014

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 16 2014 - 00Z Thu Oct 23 2014

...Tropical Storm Ana to affect Hawai'i starting late Friday...

Note... The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing advisories
on Tropical Storm Ana. Please consult their advisories for the
latest information.

Upper ridging will linger to the northeast of Hawai'i for the next
couple days as surface high pressure weakens, allowing the trades
to slacken Thursday. By Friday, tropical storm Ana is forecast to
approach the Big Island from the southeast, passing near or over
the island chain this weekend. The models remain in rather good
agreement taking the center just to the west of the islands, with
winds veering east-northeast to south-southeast during the period
based on the forecast track. With abudant tropical moisture likely
to overtake the islands, rainfall totals could be heavy
(especially in terrain-enhanced areas).

Ana should pull away to the northwest of the 50th state early next
week, allowing drier air to push in from the east. However, it is
unclear if the weakening system will try to curve back to the
northeast (north of the islands), which will keep elevated PW
values over most of the region or continue to the northwest or
north. Ensembles are split, likely due to timing differences in
the north Pacific. Rainfall may linger into midweek over at least
Kauai.


Fracasso