Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 758 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2014 Valid 00Z Fri Oct 17 2014 - 00Z Fri Oct 24 2014 ... 'Ana' heading towards Hawai'i this weekend ... The 16/00Z ECENS/GEFS and their deterministic runs offered no surprises with respect to the anticipated track and forward speed of 'Ana' during the next 3 days---passing south of the state---but close enough to generate substantial periods of very heavy rainfall and strong, gusty winds on Saturday and Sunday. This closely matches the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) forecast---heading into Monday morning. Please refer to the CPHC for the latest forecasts and most current information concerning 'Ana'. The deterministic 16/00z GFS/ECMWF solutions begin to differ from their means on day 4 (Monday) as the tropical system interacts with a migratory mid-latitude surface ridge originating in the western Aleutians. The result is a timing difference---and at what longitude---a northward re-curvature occurs with the system (roughly west of Kauai and east of French Frigate Shoals). For days 5-7, recommend using a blend of the 11/00Z GEFS/ECENS means considering the deterministic 11/00Z GFS closely fit the ECENS/GEFS solution and the system's entrainment in the mid-latitude westerlies. The deterministic ECMWF would suggest the system stalls invof 24N 163W on Tuesday and Wednesday. Vojtesak