Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
809 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2014

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 27 2014 - 00Z Mon Nov 03 2014

Over the past day the models and ensembles have been fairly
agreeable and consistent with significant features in the coming
week.  Into Tue expect trades to be on the lighter side as eastern
Pacific high pressure slowly weakens, so there may be somewhat
more than the average influence from sea and land breeze
boundaries on shower activity.  Strong high pressure crossing the
central Pacific will begin building far enough southward to begin
strengthening the trades starting on Wed.  Then consolidation of
ridging aloft to the northwest of the islands will allow for a
southward push of a sheared mid level shortwave and surface front
which should reach the islands late Thu or Fri, bringing a band of
better organized rainfall.  Model agreement on frontal timing is
better than average for the time frame involved with current
consensus perhaps a tad faster than forecasts from 24 hours ago. 
Trades should begin to weaken somewhat next weekend as high
pressure continues its eastward progression.  Most guidance
suggests that a weakness aloft may linger over the islands during
the weekend so there could still be a modest enhancement of
rainfall at that time.

Rausch