Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 707 AM EST Mon Nov 03 2014 Valid 00Z Tue Nov 04 2014 - 00Z Tue Nov 11 2014 The guidance generally agree on moving upper troughing to the north of the state Tuesday as a surface cold front dips toward the region but lingers just to the north of Kauai. PW values should remain elevated but model QPF has been nothing out of the ordinary. Toward the end of the week, Super Typhoon Nuri will likely be accelerating into the mid-latitudes and combining with energy initially over northeastern Russia to form a powerful storm for the Aleutians, which may encourage separation in the flow downstream just to the north/northeast of Hawai'i. Recent trend has been toward a bit slower/deeper solution but a bit quicker than the 02/00Z ECMWF. Regardless, it appears there may be enough push to drive a cold front into the island chain this coming weekend, increasing the threat for rain over most of the region but especially the northeast facing slopes. A compromise between the 00Z ECMWF and 06Z GFS or parallel GFS again seems reasonable. Fracasso