Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 718 AM EST Tue Nov 04 2014 Valid 00Z Wed Nov 05 2014 - 00Z Wed Nov 12 2014 The 4/00Z GEFS/ECENS and deterministic guidance were more than reasonable solutions into early day 6 (10/00Z) with the gradual progression of the weather features and scenario unfolding across the Subtropics. A weak mid-level disturbance currently invof the Big Island will continue to migrate northeastward during the next 12-24 hours---in advance of a trough in the central Pacific---currently invof 170W. By day 4 (Saturday), the upper-level portion of the trough will likely advance eastward to 150W---with the lower-level front completing a 'pass over' of the entire forecast area. What uncertainty remains---focuses on the remnant surface frontal structure heading into Sunday as upper support rapidly weakens and leaves the surface front to interact with the trade winds and local sea breeze circulations. This scenario does pose an increased threat for rain and rain showers over the eastern half of the forecast area---this weekend. Beyond this weekend, another long wave upper-level trough will gradually migrate across the central Pacific and its depth---tied to the outcome of Typhoon 'Nuri'. At this point, another surface front will be approaching from the northwest---and be invof 170W around the day 7 time frame (next Tuesday). Vojtesak