Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 721 AM EST Wed Nov 05 2014 Valid 00Z Thu Nov 06 2014 - 00Z Thu Nov 13 2014 The 5/00Z GEFS/ECENS means have general agreement with the overall flow pattern in the north central Pacific and continue to project a frontal passage across Hawai'i this weekend. The deterministic 5/00Z GFS/ECMWF appear to both agree that the front will pass across the entire forecast area versus a few earlier forecasts. Aloft, the north central Pacific flow pattern takes on a slightly more progressive approach next week---with the remnants of Typhoon 'Nuri' fully incorporated into the mid-latitude wave pattern. The GEFS has a slightly more amplified 'look and feel' in the Subtropics between 150W-170W heading into day 6-7. This is in part due to the slightly faster progression of a deep and typhoon-infused surface low in the southern Bering Sea on day 2-5. It would be reasonable to assume that mid-level and mid-latitude energy ejecting from the southeast quadrant of this storm system could propagate very quickly downstream and a series of these waves would present the overall 'means' with a more amplified 'look and feel' over time. With that said, the 5/00Z GEFS blended at a 50/50 ratio with the 5/00Z ECENS should yield decent results for Hawai'i between days 2-7. Vojtesak