Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 725 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2014 Valid 00Z Tue Nov 11 2014 - 00Z Tue Nov 18 2014 Guidance continues to reasonably agree upon a similar overall mid-larger scale flow pattern for the Hawaiian islands for the next week, so prefer an overall composite solution to address smaller scale forecast spread/uncertainty. Expect decreased winds/showers for the aloha state over the next couple of days as a closed low now well northeast of the state continues to lift toward Alaska in response to the steady approach of upstream mid-upper level troughing to the lee of a building western Pacific mid-upper level ridge. The bulk of trough energy holds north of the islands over the next week. However, numerous flow embedded impulses work through/into the mean trough position lending a pattern supporting several varied trailing frontal surges down into the islands. Expect the first by Wednesday with subsequent stalling over the state. A second frontal approach by Friday and perhaps yet again early next week may be able to draw upon rebounding moisture from the lead stalled boundaries. This would favor a lingering period with enhanced shower potential fueled by locally deeper pooled moisture. Schichtel