Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 720 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2014 Valid 00Z Mon Nov 24 2014 - 00Z Mon Dec 01 2014 The 23/00z deterministic GFS/ECMWF seemed to closely follow the short-term local forecasts. The frontal passage will likely produce a sensible weather change---with a modified mid-latitude Pacific airmass spreading across the island chain between 24/12Z and 26/00Z. Of note, the 23/00Z ECENS/GEFS maintained good mass field continuity over the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean after day 3---versus their deterministic runs. So keeping extended forecast at a nearly equal blend seems the way to go for day 5-7 in the subtropical Pacific until the downstream/upstream pattern resolves its continued variability. The biggest differences in the Subtropics between the deterministic GFS/ECMWF concern the timing of a second mid-latitude trough progression (from the Aleutians) across the Dateline and eastward to 160W around 29/00Z. The GFS maintains a distinct separation of the mid-latitude wave train along 40N---enough of a distinction---to allow a second front to migrate into the Subtropics---approaching Kauai from the northwest on day 6 (29/12Z). The ECMWF anticipates a consolidation of the long wave pattern invof 135W---and is significantly faster with the Aleutian system's incorporation into the mid-latitude flow pattern downstream off the west coast of the Mainland. Therefore, it carries a much-less amplified and weaker surface front (29/12Z). Vojtesak