Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 710 AM EST Thu Jan 01 2015 Valid 00Z Fri Jan 02 2015 - 00Z Fri Jan 09 2015 The forecast period starts with dry northwesterly winds behind departing low pressure well north-northeast of the state and trailing front extending to its south. Then rapidly amplifying/sharpening energy upstream will approach/cross the region Fri-Sat. Models/ensemble means are fairly well clustered with respect to an associated surface wave that should track just north of the islands, leading to enhanced southwesterly winds ahead of it and northwesterly winds after passage of the wave/trailing front. The combination of dynamics aloft and a brief increase of deep moisture may support locally strong/windy convection with some heavy rainfall. Relative to most current guidance the 00z ECMWF seems to be slightly more amplified with the upper trough as it crosses the islands, which may lead to a surface track a fraction south of consensus. On the other hand GFS runs lean a bit toward the stronger side of the envelope with the depth of the wave. Behind this system expect drier conditions into early next week. Guidance is now showing better agreement with a weak front dropping southeastward toward the state by next Tue/Wed, accompanied by a modest increase in deep moisture. Trailing high pressure tracking eastward along 30N latitude will likely support at least moderate trades through Thu. Rausch