Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 721 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2015 Valid 00Z Sun Jan 18 2015 - 00Z Sun Jan 25 2015 A main mid-latitude storm track remains channeled north of the state overtop an east-west oriented mid-upper level ridge centered over the west-central Pacific southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. Trades remain generally disrupted in this pattern over much of the next week. Model and ensemble forecast spread and uncertainty is still quite low over the next week, so predictability looks good using a preferred composite model and ensemble blend to smooth any of the rougher smaller scale details. Current passage of impulses energy aloft supported surface frontal system and shower approach into the western islands. The stalled front should gradually weaken over the weekend. Significant Pacific flow amplification, including development of a strong mid-upper level trough to the northwest of the state, is still expected to force a second frontal approach into the state starting Friday. This amplified system offers increased potential for the return of deeper lead moisture inflow across the state to fuel some heavier frontal/pre-frontal rains Schichtel