Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
727 AM EST Mon Feb 02 2015

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 03 2015 - 00Z Tue Feb 10 2015

The 2/00Z ECENS/GEFS and their deterministic runs were in good
agreement aloft---with the progression of the mid-latitude pattern
into the Subtropics.

However, the subtle model differences continue over the Gulf of
Alaska---and their handling of an Arctic shortwave and its path
west (GFS) or east (ECMWF) of the upper-level ridge axis draped
along the west coast of the North American continent.

The deterministic model "differences" projected in the Gulf of
Alaska---make for a change in the 'sequencing' of migratory
systems along 40N between the Dateline and 160W. Still think one
can use the deterministic ECMWF into day 6 (8/12Z). Then recommend
using a blend of the 2/00Z GEFS/ECENS after the 8/00Z and 8/12Z
time frame. This will mitigate the subtle 'alterations' that the
2/00z deterministic guidance attempt to introduce into the long
wave pattern and forecast.   

Vojtesak