Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
727 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2015

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 20 2015 - 00Z Fri Feb 27 2015

Models and ensembles reasonably agree that an amplified mid-upper
level trough passing to the north of the state should support a
trailing surface frontal push into the islands Friday. This front
and associated moisture/shower focus will gradually diminish over
the weekend. Pacific flow amplification next week should slow the
next upstream mid-upper level trough and frontal system advance
toward the state into midweek when showers may near the western
islands, bumping into a then amplified Hawaiian based mid-upper
level ridge. This ridge may begin to be undercut by a lower
latitide closed low that guidance shows should prove slow to
approach the Big Island from the southeast late next week but is
of interest.

Schichtel