Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
711 AM EST Sat Mar 07 2015

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 08 2015 - 00Z Sun Mar 15 2015

Nothing embedded within the 7/00Z forecast cycle guidance would
signal a need to deviate from the current Hawai'i forecast for
moderate/strong wind aloft, a mid-latitude feel to the northerly
low-level wind component, and a slightly cooler but drier sensible
weather pattern through the weekend and into early next week. The
cutoff system that is sagging southward along 152W---does finally
migrate to the northeast on Monday---but another system migrating
east of Kamchatka will likely replace the exiting system/trough
along 160W-165W longitude on Wednesday (11/12Z). If there will be
some relaxation of the pattern aloft---it would likely be Tuesday
and a brief period of more 'seasonal' trade wind flow. 

The 7/00Z forecast cycle---including the deterministic GFS/ECMWF
and Canadian have general agreement aloft (@ the 500mb level) with
another reinforcing mid-level trough passage for Hawai'i around
day 6 (13/12Z). The 7/00Z GFS is a faster solution aloft at day
6---but well-within the spread of its 7/00Z GEFS ensemble package.
The Canadian and ECMWF are slower (and well-within their ensemble
envelope(s))---and preferred across the Subtropical Pacific today.
By no means---though does this provide added confidence beyond the
day 6 forecast point. There are fundamental differences over
several places in the northern hemisphere---namely the southwest
US Mainland, interior Alaska and East Pacific (invof 140W).

After day 6...would suggest starting with the 7/00Z ECENS/NAEFS
ensemble means but expect some alterations in the future as the
pattern unfolds over the mid-latitude Pacific and Gulf of Alaska.

Vojtesak