Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 804 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2015 Valid 00Z Fri Mar 13 2015 - 00Z Fri Mar 20 2015 Bands of rainfall currently over the state, and the Big Island in particular, will be pushed eastward over the next day as an approaching upper trough and surface front clear out the leading slow moving axis of shortwave energy that has been supporting the moist southwesterly flow aloft. The rest of the forecast period should be relatively drier as precipitable water values decrease to below 0.75 inch at most locations during Fri-Sat before slowly rebounding to 1-1.25 inches by next Tue-Wed. Behind the passing front high pressure will bring freshening winds from the northwest, turning more northerly then northeasterly over the next couple days. Gradual weakening of the surface high should allow for at least modest slackening of trades by Sun-Mon. The majority of guidance is advertising the approach and passage of another front late in the period Wed-Thu as an upper trough passes to the north of the region. The 00z ECMWF becomes out of phase relative to most other solutions for Pacific flow by Wed-Thu thus leading to less southeastward progression of the front. Prefer an average of remaining guidance including the 00-06z GFS and 00z GEFS/ECMWF means. Currently expect associated rainfall with this front to be in the light to moderate range. Rausch