Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion...amended
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
858 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 25 2015 - 00Z Wed Apr 01 2015

Frontal passage and cold front still on-track to migrate across
Kauai around 25/00Z time frame.

The deterministic 24/00Z ECMWF appeared to be the more
'progressive' solution with its surge east-southeastward to
Oahu/Maui by 27/06Z. This 'progressive' solution is
relative---given the trajectory of the airmass intrusion will not
be a true  northwest-to-southeast migration. In fact, appeared
that the 24/00Z Canadian/GFS really never bring the 'front' south
of 23N latitude and provide far less impact---for the eastern half
of the state. That said, if the frontal progression actually comes
to fruition---it will take a slower path southward through the
western 1/3rd of the state. 

Beyond the 60-hour point---there were notable differences in the
deterministic guidance across the mid-latitude Pacific. However,
the differences do not significantly alter the pattern across
Hawai'i. And for the most part, the differences only pertain to
the timing of the Subtropical Trades (tracking their wax and wane
in intensity) as a portion of the east central Pacific surface
ridge migrates eastward towards the Mainland next week (days 4-6).

Recommend an equal blend of the 24/00Z ECENS, NAEFS and GEFS means
beyond day 4 to handle the structure of the Subtropical Ridge in
the eastern Pacific.

Vojtesak